Although the
UK was alerted months in advance severe condition of the winter, it never
materialized, the East Coast being unusually bitter. The UK’s Met Office
stressed the poor forecast and insists the difficulty to accurately predict
forecast months or years beforehand because of many factors involved that can
be discussed in detail in their five-day forecasts. The weather prediction is
so sensitive that it can be changed totally and bring completely different
outcome by tiny causes. We may response with “A fat lot of good”, yet there is
an optimistic possibility to improve the system, focusing on European and North
American winter climate, which are precisely predictable months in advance.
It is
absolutely helpful that we can anticipate the weather of next week. It
enormously benefits to from children to seniors, farmers, commuters, and even
companies which have to handle the business depending on the weather. Nevertheless,
the law of physics has established a limit on how far beforehand the forecast
can be anticipate, as it is mathematically impossible to predict in detail such
as local weather forecast in more than 10 days away. However, some aspects of
weather such as average temperature, and ocean circulation. Not perfectly
accurate as the current forecasts are, the systems and technology in Western
Europe, satellite observations and computer modelling has come a long way; for
example, five-day predicting weather is demonstrably more accurate than the three-day
forecast in the late 1980s. The Met Office have therefore optimistic eyes on
winter forecasting in the North Atlantic area, where the atmosphere is not
tightly related to ocean circulation so they cannot rely on medium-range
forecasting.
The North
Atlantic Oscillation is a difference in air pressure which takes a role to
decide the strength of the westerly jet stream and tracks of Atlantic storms,
depending on the deference between low-pressure over Iceland and high-pressure
around Azores, which is the most important seasonal factor for North Atlantic
climate. The size of difference has been back and forth every few years
irregularly. Though it’s similar to El Nino, which is closely related to
fluctuation of sea-surface temperature and more predictable, NAO is different
in that it is almost unpredictable. The causes of erratic NAO have not been
proven, but it seems that it linked to the state of Arctic sea ice and two-year
cycle in the winds of the tropical lower stratosphere. When the model gains the
information of those things, NAO will be well predictable, which helps us prevent
from dismal catastrophes and also provide useful and crucial date for wind
energy plan and setting fuel-pricing policies.
I think if we
can get accurate forecasts months in advance, it helps greatly our life; it is
enormously beneficial to not only agriculture but also area of producing power sustainably.
Tons of money has drawn into floods resulting from severe weather. It is the
time for making energy efficiently, cultivating products stably prospecting the
total harvest, and saving lives from sudden disaster. I hope to get more
accurate weather forecast down the line.
No comments:
Post a Comment